Monday, June 28, 2010

NY-23: Thoughts on Hoffman's Petitions

Lately there has been speculation about whether or not Doug Hoffman will be able to obtain the necessary number of signatures to get on the Republican Primary ballot. While Tea Party groups have committed to help with Hoffman's petition drive, some feel that he lacks the organizational power to get enough signatures without the support of the Republican leadership.

There is legitimate reason for concern. After all, the Hoffman campaign hasn't been particularly active or visible until very recently, and it's arguable that the weakness of his campaign's get out the vote effort last November is one of the primary reasons Hoffman isn't in Washington today, preparing for his reelection campaign.

However, he did just receive a high profile endorsement from Dick Armey, and that will certainly help to energize his supporters.

While there hasn't been much info coming out of the Hoffman camp yet, there is at least one parallel race we can look at for an example: Dave Kimmel's primary challenge to Duprey in the 114th Assembly District.

Like Hoffman, Kimmel is a Tea Party movement candidate, backed by the Conservative Party, running against a candidate with strong institutional support. Like Hoffman, it's up to Kimmel and his supporters to get enough signatures to be on the ballot, without support from the local Republicans.

And how is Kimmel doing? Well, on June 17th, he reported on his campaign blog that he had passed the minimum number of required signatures.

This isn't official, of course, and Kimmel only needed 500 signatures, while Hoffman needs 1,250. However, if Kimmel had over 500 signatures by the 17th for a race covering a smaller area with a lower level of interest, it seems likely that Hoffman will be able to get the signatures he needs before mid-July.

Or I could be entirely wrong. We'll know soon.

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